All is good in Blue Jay land as we prepare for what may be our greatest season ever..... or not. We've thought that before, but ridiculously bad things can always happen in baseball. Nevertheless, they are well positioned to have a great season and hopefully another crack at the postseason. After that, their two best players (I can't really say this anymore because after acquiring Josh Donaldson, he instantly became league MVP, but for years it was the case) Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion become free agents.
Most if not all Toronto Blue Jay fans have been hoping the team will sign these guys now to avoid potentially losing them later, but that hasn't transpired so far with our new management. Nor will it. Here's why........
Let's start with Bautista. By the time the Jays are hopefully playing playoff baseball, but certainly before he becomes a free agent, he will have turned 36. Joey Bats had a little media scrum earlier in the Spring and was very firm and clear about how his next contract will be. I didn't mind this at all. He just doesn't want the media to talk about this all year long, and ruin what might or might not be his last season here, and maybe the team's best ever. The message was that he wants to get paid fair market price. For a guy who was a late bloomer, he's only had one big contract. He's not hurting for money, but if you look at his numbers over that time, the Jays got a huge bargain. If he signed right now, it would cost the Jays over $100 million, and they'd be paying him into his 40s. Bautista brings a lot to the table. A career OBP of .368, an average of 37 HRs over the last 6 years to name a couple. He's a pretty good outfielder too. But will he be into his 40s?? I don't know. He already had some shoulder problems last year that marginalized his once cannon of an arm. Will he bounce back? Or is that his new arm? Will the bat slow down?
What about Edwin? Nice to have a guy that can average 40 HRs. His days of playing first base are probably numbered. He's really just a DH these days. He's 33, so you almost think that if you signed him for 4 or 5 years, he might still be a decent player by the end of the contract, but his back is a little bit wonky for my liking if it was my money. Not to mention that you have 2 other first basemen on your team that had really good seasons last year. Would either of them hit 40 homers? No, but for the amount you'd have to pay them, they might give you a good bang for the buck. Seems depressing I know, but if they couldn't sign EE, and Smoak and Colabello had to play every day, it wouldn't be the end of the world I don't think. If I was a fiscally conservative GM, I might have that rolling through my head.
The 2017 Jays already have $84 million committed to 5 players. Bautista and Encarnacion are not among them. So to add another $40 million plus (very modest estimate) just to get it up to 7 players seems very New York Yankeeish. It's a lot of money. Despite the fact that both players have said they would like to sign here, I'm not surprised that the Jays brass hasn't tried to sign them. It's best to see how this season plays out. They are both as good as they are going to be and therefore could command as much money right now as they would ever be able to get. The price can't get any higher. Signing either of them would be a good PR move, but there are enough good feelings going around with this team, that your PR is set for a while. Nobody cried too hard when we couldn't sign David Price, so they shouldn't get too bent out of shape if we don't sign Bats and EE before the end of the season.
With all that in mind, here's what they should do. Nothing. Let the season play out recognizing that this is the best lineup you will ever have, and do everything in your power to win this year. If they get off to a rotten start this season, and don't turn it around by July, trade both players and completely re-tool your minor league system. If we are trending towards a playoff berth, keep both players and take your chances in the off season. If one of them (Bautista in particular) has a down year, and it looks like it's because of aging, that might drive the price down and make it easier to sign him. Essentially, you want this team to make the World Series so you can max out on your revenue. If that happens, you can probably justify signing one or both of them to try to do it again. What you don't want is to keep them both, and have the team narrowly miss the playoffs, or go out in the first round. Then you probably won't bother signing them, but will get nothing for them. Also you want to keep an eye on the contingency plans and see how they perform. Could Colabello and Smoak be your full time guys? Will Dalton Pompey be ready to excel in the majors as an every day player? These factors could also inform that decision.
Whichever way it plays, I just hope that the Toronto media doesn't go on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on about this all season long. Especially if the team is winning. We've waited so long to have a team worthy of just talking about baseball games, and none of the other BS. It would be a shame if they killed our vibe by giving us daily updates about the pending free agents.
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