Wednesday, October 5, 2016

ALDS Preview: Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Indians

(photo credit: Boston Globe)

The AL Central Division Champions, the Cleveland Indians (94-67), will host the AL East Champions, Boston Red Sox (93-69) at Progressive Field for games one and two before heading to Fenway Park for games three and four. If a game five is needed, it'll be held in Cleveland.

The last time these two teams met in the playoffs was nine years ago in the ALCS. The Indians would lose that series in seven games. Boston scored eight runs in the last two innings of game seven that sealed their trip to the World Series, which they would win.

The Red Sox won the season series with the Indians going 4-2. Five of those six games came before June, and before Cleveland began to pick up steam. In Game 1 of the ALDS, which starts Thursday Night (8:00 pm, TBS), the Indians will start Trevor Bauer who has a 12-8 record with a 4.26 ERA, but who has been incredibly inconsistent of late. In Bauer's last seven starts, he has an ERA of 7.28. The Red Sox on the other hand, will start AL Cy Young favorite, Rick Porcello (22-4, 3.15 ERA). Porcello hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in game since July 24.

In game two of the ALDS, the Indians will start their ace, Corey Kluber, who has a 18-9 record with a 3.14 ERA. He'll be going against another ace for the Red Sox in David Price. The former Tampa Bay Rays ace went 17-9 with a 3.99 ERA for Boston in 2016. The Red Sox gave Price a seven-year, $217 million deal prior to the season.

 Given the massive contract, Price has given up a lot runs during the course of the season. His 1.17 home runs per nine innings was the second most of his career. Price, however, has only allowed two or fewer runs in all but two of his last ten games. In his only start against Cleveland this season, which was Opening Day, Price was able to limit the Tribe to only two earned runs on two hits, while striking out ten batters through six innings.

For the Indians, Kluber has been their workhorse yet again this season. Kluber is also in the mix for the AL Cy Young Award this season. He was fifth among AL starters in innings pitched (215), fourth in strikeouts per nine innings (9.50), fourth in earned run average (3.14), first in fielding independent pitching (3.26), and second in FanGraphs WAR (5.1) behind a three-way tie of Chris Sale of the Chicago White Sox, Justin Verlander of the Detroit Tigers and Rick Porcello of the Red Sox.

Game three of the ALDS will take place at Fenway Park, with Clay Buchholz taking the mound. Buchholz had a rough season, going 8-10 with a 4.78 ERA. He had a major problem with giving up home runs, as well as issuing walks on the season.

The Indians will combat Buchholz with Josh Tomlin, who went 13-9 on the season with a 4.40 ERA. In Tomlin's last four starts of the season, he only allowed five earned runs while only surrendering one home run. He also didn't allow a single walk during that span. In Tomlin's only start against the Red Sox, back on August 15, he only allowed three runs on seven hits with zero walks in 7.2 innings.

If games four and five are needed, it'll mean both teams could be in panic mode. The Red Sox would likely start either Rick Porcello or David Price. The Indians could go with Corey Kluber or game one starter Trevor Bauer.

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