A look at the Braves 2016 rotation progression

According to the Atlanta Braves official depth chart, the starting rotation stands as such:

1. Julio Teheran
2.  Bud Norris
3.  Matt Wisler
4.  Williams Perez
5.  Mike Foltynewicz

Even to the most devoted fan, having Bud Norris as your number two starter makes you squirm in your chair a little bit.  In the end, I think the opening day rotation looks a lot like this, maybe with the exception of Foltynewicz.  He was brought in as a starter, but it has been speculated inside the Braves organization that he would eventually be converted into a late-inning reliever, a la Johnny Venters.  His control issues have posed a problem, but given the Braves are more or less writing off 2016, one would think they would give him a chance to stretch before moving him to the bullpen permanently. I see a similiar situation for Perez, a guy who came up and showed flashes of strong pitching, but couldn't string strong starts together over the course of his season.  They'll give him a shot, but he will have to show development.  With veterans like Kyle Kendrick and Jholys Chacin on the outside looking in, the Braves feel as though they have the veteran depth to give Perez a chance, and if he fails, then there's a capable stand in.

So yeah, thing's aren't sunshine and roses on opening day, but come the all star break, things might look a little more like this....

1.  Julio Teheran
2.  Matt Wisler
3.  Mike Foltynewicz
4.  Aaron Blair
5.  Jholys Chacin

 This is where things get interesting.  Williams Perez is probably the predictable name falling off the list, as he will not get as much leash as Folty, and with a bevy of pitching depth, I simply don't see him putting together enough quality starts to keep his spot.  The notable omission has to be Norris.  On a team that's rebuilding at the speed and caliber that Atlanta is attempting, in some ways, the vets need to impress even more than the rookies.  I do not think this would be Norris underperforming as much as Chacin really impressing.  He was signed to a minor league deal, and I think he will not break camp with the team, but sometime around late June he will perform in AAA at a clip that simply cannot be ignored.  This is a pitcher that carries a 3.67 career ERA after having spent nearly his entire career pitching at Coors Field.  Blair seems to be a sure thing to pitch this season in Atlanta, even with an outside chance at cracking the opening day roster.  While I don't think he will right away, It seems pretty likely he'll push his way in sometime in June.

Then we have September call-ups, which could shake things up a bit...

1.  Julio Teheran
2.  Matt Wisler
3.  Aaron Blair
4.  Jholys Chacin
5.  Tyrell Jenkins

I think sometime in August, Folty will start to run out of gas and make way for a spot starter, probably Kendrick, Norris, or maybe Manny Banuelos to bide time until the September call ups.  Atlanta will be fully out of contention by this time, so it's audition time for Tyrell Jenkins.  Brought in originally as a reliever, he has responded well to being stretched as a starter both in AA and AAA, pitching to a 3.19 ERA over 138 innings.

I'm leaning these predictions on a few flimsy pillars:

1. Copollela and co. understand that if 2017 is a target for contention, then the young'ns need innings, and that age gives way to potential.  
2. That the Braves will not be in contention pretty much at any time during the season, so calling up Jenkins and maybe even Fried wouldn't be any worse than what we're marching out there anyway.
3.  Someone like Chacin will find his old form again.  This is a guy who has the makings of a comeback, but I could be wrong, so in which case, someone like Norris could stay in the rotation all season. He could also be trade bait if he overperforms, so factor that in.

And because why not?  Opening day 2017?...............

1. Julio Teheran
2. Aaron Blair
3. Tyrell Jenkins
4. Matt Wisler
5. Sean Newcomb