Cards vs Cubs: Battle in the Outfield

The Chicago Cubs “won” the offseason. Their team is so good they are projected to outpace the Cards by nearly 10 games this season. Why even play? Just give the Series to them. Thank god we didn't listen to that crap last year when the Nationals “won” the offseason and were projected to blow everyone away. Thankfully the game is played on the field and not on paper.

Much has been made about the Cubs and their outfield since the acquisition of Heyward. They are projected to start Schwarber/Heyward/Soler across the field and Steamers has projected an increase in production from all three this season.

     

                     Avg/Obp/Slg   HR   wRC+   WAR

Heyward     284/362/449   18    123       4.8

Schwarber  261/345/474   23    124       2.6

Soler            260/324/440   18    107       1.2

Heyward’s slash line is in line with most of his career with a slight increase in HR to 18. He has not hit more than 14 since 2012. Schwarber and Soler both have protections in line with their previous years except with an larger increase in HR again from Soler from 10 to 18. These projections are optimistic, though they are not out of the realm of possibility.

The Cardinals outfield, however, is grimly projected by Steamer, in particular Grichuk and Piscotty.

                   Avg/Obp/Slg   HR   wRC+  WAR

Holiday     274/367/440   18    124       2.1

Grichuk     249/296/445   23    101       1.8

Piscotty    267/327/407   11    103       1.0

Holiday projects to have some regression in comparison to his career averages. He is expected to have a nearly 20 point drop in his OBP which would be surprising as his OBP has consistently stayed at around .386 throughout his career. However, with his recent injuries I would agree with his projections overall as they account for age and injury related decline.

It is the projections for Grichuk and Piscotty that are more alarming. Grichuk is projected to have a 27 point drop in his batting average, a 33 point drop in his OBP, and an astonishing 103 point drop in his slugging percentage from last year. He was worth 3.1 WAR last year in 350 plate appearances but is projected to be worth just 1.8 WAR over 590 plate appearances according to Steamer. That appears to be an extremely low estimation of what Grichuk can do especially as hard as he hits the ball. He is also projected as a below average fielder, when he has been above average the last two years. If he stays healthy, I would expect at least a duplication of his 3.1 WAR in 590 plate appearances from Grichuk.

Piscotty has an even poorer projection. He posted a 1.1 WAR in 256 plate appearances last year with 7 home runs. Steamer only projects him at 1.0 WAR over 500 plate appearances with only 11 home runs. They project a 52 point drop in his OBP and an 87 point drop in his slugging percentage. They also project him as a well below average defender, when he is widely regarded throughout the organization as an above average defender with a plus arm. I would expect at least a 2.5-3 WAR out of Piscotty this year over a full season of production.

Overall I feel like the projections are selling the Cardinals short, with only a total of 4.9 WAR from the three starters. The Cubs are projected at 8.6 WAR with 4.8 coming from Heyward alone. I think all three of the Cardinal outfielders will beat their projections, with Piscotty and Grichuk eclipsing them by a wide margin. It is surprising that Piscotty and Grichuk are expected to regress even though they are young players coming into their prime.

Don't be surprised Cubs fans if the Redbird outfield comes out on top.

Thanks for reading.

All statistical data credited to Fangraphs